Project Gutenberg recently received an email from MarketIntellNow, a Maryland-based, six-year old market research firm that focuses on nascent niches. They do a lot of polling using a methodology called “ANWO”, they then blog about the results at a high level (for free) while selling the resulting report in their eStore.
Of late they have started examining the world of eBooks and just recently polled 5,000 Netizens on the subject.
I emailed them back to see if they could pass along some insights on what the poll told, here is their response;
eBooks has to date been all ranch, no cattle. That’s about to change; here’s why:
Amazon and others are about to deliver a dizzying array of e-titles of all types. Sure, there’s still the format issue (Sony Reader unwisely landlocks users with their BBeB format) but this will wash out fast, because the revenue opportunity is vast. Never underestimate America’s slavish love of speed and convenience; our survey of 5,000 Netizens shows that a big reason eBooks is at the inflection point is because readers want what they want instantaneously.
The CW (“Convention Wisdom”) is that for eBooks to go mainstream, we need hand-held readers with screens you can read from outer space. No. There’s a phenomenon we call “Appliance Intimacy,” you know it as folks at the airport gazing into the screen of their laptops with the ardor of true romance. Netizens love their laptops, iPods et al. They’re listening to music and watching video in astonishing volumes. On their PCs/laptops or the coming slew of hand-held devices from Amazon and others, they will ingest hearty slabs of eBooks, too.
“Book Me”– Don’t miss the fact that as iTunes allows “Radio Me” and YouTube allows “TV Me,” the facile availability of digital books will spark mass customization. Most of us will have our own beloved eBook list that we’ll grow, manage and groom with constant vigilance. And you know what?
You’ll save a ton of money. And you’ll read more. Meet our faithful economic friend, Mr. Elasticity. eBooks at $10 apiece and down– all the way down to free– will radically expand the sleepy $36 billion U.S. publishing business, not cannibalize it. And some of the free eBooks will be monetized by (wait for it): Online Advertising.
Contemplate the iPod: Sure, it has the personalization engine (iTunes) for a self-absorbed populace. Certainly it has exploited elasticity ($.99/song). But most of all it’s beloved because the device itself is hip, cool, elegant. The eBooks devices that are landing– single-purpose and multi-purpose devices both– will have a similar industrial design ethos and a $200 and less price point over time that will cause them to fly off retail and etail shelves. Remember when no one had an iPod on the subway, and now it’s close to 50%?
That intent gaze you’ll detect among legions of Netizens in 2008-09 is from happily reading on their precious eBook devices, especially those that are WiFi- or 3G-enabled.
Attention Netizens: First music. Then video. Now books will be the third leg of the stool for what we call “Tommy’s Terabyte.”